F-35: Det flyvende pengesluket

Dagens Næringsliv 06.04.2021

F-35, flyet som har byttet navn oftere enn Prince, er en dyr affære. De  færreste som har fulgt saken trodde  regjeringen da de påsto at det ville bli billigere enn svenskenes JAS Gripen. Men få spådde at det ville bli så inn i granskauen dyrt.

Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II er et imponerende fly: femte generasjons flerbruks jagerfly med stealth-teknologi. Det er også et symbol på en forsvarsindustri hvor enhetsprisene er ute av kontroll. F-35 er historiens dyreste forsvarsprosjekt, dyrere enn Maginotlinjen.  Prosessen har vært preget av massive kostnadsoverskridelser og en kultur som har oppmuntret til storstilt sløseri. Ikke mine ord, Pentagons.

Som en fugl Fønix oppstod F-35 i et bål – av penger. I 2010 var den opprinnelige prisrammen sprengt med 50 prosent. Programmet er flere år forsinket, noe som har forårsaket nye ekstrakostnader. En intern Pentagonrapport konkluderte med at: «prisgunstighet er ikke lenger å anse som en bærebjelke i prosjektet». I januar 2011 uttrykte selv USAs daværende forsvarsminister Robert Gates sin frustrasjon over hva han kalte «mangel på økonomisk selvbeherskelse.»

Fullskala produksjon av flyet ventes å ta til i 2016. Forsvarseksperter i Jane’s Defence Weekly hevder at kampen nå vil stå om hvor mye av overskridelsene USA klarer å skyve over på utenlandske kjøpere og hvor mye som kan anføres som «vedlikeholdsutgifter», altså komme i tillegg. 

Enter Norge. Det kan synes besynderlig at Norge valgte F-35 i stedet for JAS Gripen under henvisning til at det svenske flyet var dyrere. Mest fordi JAS er et dårligere fly enn F-35 i nær sagt ethvert henseende – unntatt i pris! Senere ble det klart at regjeringen drev taskenspill. Wallenberg-familien gikk med som partner i regjeringens oppkjøp i Røkkes Aker. Det er nærliggende å tro at de fikk signaler om at Norge seriøst vurderte å kjøpe svensk.

Utenlandsk investor fikk Aker-handelen til å virke kosher.  Da det viste seg at JAS aldri var et reelt alternativ, trakk Wallenberg seg ut. De vil tjene 270 millioner på handlene, fordi de garderte seg. Den norske regjeringen gjorde ikke det samme. Regjeringen må kunne sies å ha vist rørende tillitsfullhet overfor partifellen Røkke. De ble lurt. Regningen på et par hundre millioner går til skattebetalerne og hører hjemme i F-35 regnskapet.

Så hvorfor vil Norge på død og liv kjøpe dette flyet? Saken er den at F-35 skal bli «det nye F-16», det vil si grunnstammen i NATOs luftmakt. Og det er dumt å kjøpe Mac hvis alle dine kolleger har pc – og det er i alle fall dumt å kjøpe en Mac fra 1993 – året da Gripen først gikk på vingene.

Norge planlegger å kjøpe 56 F-35, selv om det er vanskelig å se for seg at dette antallet blir stående. Grunnen er at de ikke bare er ekstremt dyre i innkjøp (52 milliarder kr og stigende), de er også ekstremt dyre å vedlikeholde. Mellom 35-50 prosent dyrere enn dagens F-16.  Kostnadene per fly per år er av en slik størrelsesorden at det vil svi et hull i det norske forsvarsbudsjettet.

Norge har lagt ned territorialforsvaret, om ikke i teorien så i praksis. Vi er helt avhengige av at andre forsvarer landet dersom ulykken er ute. Dette tatt i betraktning, kan innkjøpet av F-35 minne om en trygdemottaker som kjøper seg en Bugatti Veyron: Det er ikke noe galt med bilen, det er noe galt med kjøperens prioriteringsevne.

Det er kanskje derfor Danmark hoppet av F-35 og nå vurderer det rimeligere F-18 Super Hornet. Den danske forsvarsanalytikeren Henrik Breitenbauch forklarer: «hvis F-18 er god nok til US Navy de neste 20-30 årene, så bør et lite land overveie om ikke det også er godt nok for oss». Holland har også undersøkt muligheden for at neddrosle eller sætte landets deltagelse på pause i udviklingen af det amerikanske kampfly Joint Strike Fighter (F-35).

Norge tenker ikke i samme baner. En mulig forklaring er at Danmark, gjennom å ta tunge løft i Irak og Afghanistan har vunnet retten til å stå over F-35. For Norge er ikke en ‘tredje vei’ på bordet.

I Canada førte kostnadsoverskridelsene i F-35 prosjektet til regjeringskrise. Prisen som brukes der er at 65 jagerfly kan ende opp med å koste landet anslagsvis 180 milliarder kroner, å kjøpe og vedlikeholde i 30 år. Det er nesten to tredjedeler mer enn hva parlamentet hadde fått seg forelagt. Det er med andre ord all grunn for norske myndigheter å holde et øye med F-35s taksameter. Det bør ikke overraske noen dersom det kommer nye overraskelser.

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